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(Last Updated On: April 20, 2024)
The absence of GDP growth coupled with declining external financing avenues for off-budget expenditures paint a bleak picture of Afghanistan’s economic prospects, the World Bank said.
After a severe 20.7 percent GDP contraction in 2021, the Afghan economy contracted further by 6.2 percent in 2022, the bank said in a report.
“While Afghanistan’s agricultural and subsistence economy, including illicit opium production, provided some resilience in rural areas, higher prices, reduced demand, lower employment, and disruptions to services had severe impacts across the country,” it said.
The proportion of households that did not have enough income to meet basic food needs more than doubled from 16 percent to 36 percent in this period, according to the bank.
In the context of deep concerns about the policies of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), including restrictions imposed on women and girls, the international community, including the World Bank, recalibrated its approach to supporting Afghanistan: first to providing humanitarian support and then to providing off-budget support for basic service delivery and livelihoods.
However, IEA moved to restore domestic revenues, which reached $2.2 billion or 15 percent of GDP in 2022. “Nevertheless, overall economic activity remained depressed, unemployment stayed high, and the banking sector was dysfunctional due to constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency.”
World Bank said that Afghanistan’s economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming large until at least 2025. “This economic stagnation will deepen poverty and unemployment, with job opportunities expected to decrease and food insecurity expected to increase.”
The bank noted that for a sustainable future, Afghanistan needs to focus on its comparative advantages, particularly in the agricultural and extractive sectors. Agriculture could be a key driver of growth and poverty reduction, with the potential to create jobs, it added.
